Water levels still high, expected to begin receding

Those living along the Blue Water Area's eastern shore have been dealing with high water levels all year.

While Lake St. Clair and Lake Michigan-Huron are still at record highs, experts expect levels to retreat moving into the fall months. 

 St. Clair County Homeland Security and Emergency Management Director Justin Westmiller said such a decline would be welcome news, but urged residents to be careful as levels still remain high. Storms and strong winds could still cause flooding, he said. 

The area's waterways should soon enter their typical fall water decline, said U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Physical Scientist Deanna Apps. This year's summer was relatively hot, and the warmer temperatures lead to warmer water surfaces, Apps said. When cool air moves in during the fall, this leads to evaporation. 

"Mid to late fall and even early winter, some of those temperature differences between the lake surface and the air temperature can be pretty large and it can really cause significant evaporation," Apps said. "The colder air moving over that relatively warm lake surface is the key to evaporation." 

In a water levels report dated Aug. 7, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers found that Lake Michigan-Huron was two inches above its highest average for August. Lake St. Clair sat about 3 inches above it's highest August average. Both bodies of water are expected to drop moving into September, Lake Michigan-Huron by one inch and Lake St. Clair by 4 inches, according to the report. 

Both Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake St. Clair were 34 inches above their long-term monthly average, the report said. 

Last year some bodies of water saw a marginal fall decline in part due to a wet fall plus a warmer beginning to winter, which reduced evaporation, Apps said. And when 2020 came, new records began to be set. 

"We've continued to see these last seven months — January through July — Lake Michigan Huron has set a monthly mean water level record in each of those months," Apps said. 

The Army Corps of Engineers is predicting a typical seasonal decline this year, but if heavy fall rains come that might change. But water levels are still high, and residents should remain vigilant against high water. Even if water levels start to decline and stop breaking records, they'll likely remain above average for months to come, Apps said. 

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Contact Jeremy Ervin at (810) 989-6273 or jervin@gannett.com.Follow him on Twitter @ErvinJeremy.